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Resource ID: #789
Subject: 109
Source: 2198Jennifer LaFleur; Olga Pierce; John Templon; Sarah Cohen; Mark Hansen
Affiliation: Reveal and The Center for Investigative Reporting; ProPublica; BuzzFeed News; The New York Times
Date: 2016



Sometimes it's important to know whether a pattern could be a fluke. Is a stockbroker lucky or trading on insider knowledge? Did a player throw a game or have a bad streak? Is the lottery rigged or could the same person win twice?

Reporters often turn to traditional methods like a chi-square test to determine statistical significance, but other techniques, from poisson distributions to monte carlo simulations, might be a better fit. This panel will walk you through some of the methods you can use to answer the question: is it a fluke?

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